IPO – FACEBOOK

We estimate that our net proceeds from the sale of the Class A common stock that we are offering will be approximately $         billion, or approximately $         billion if the underwriters exercise in full their right to purchase additional shares to cover over-allotments, assuming an initial public offering price of $         per share, which is the midpoint of the price range on the cover page of this prospectus, and after deducting estimated underwriting discounts and commissions and estimated offering expenses payable by us. A $1.00 increase (decrease) in the assumed initial public offering price of $         per share would increase (decrease) the net proceeds to us from our initial public offering by $         million, assuming the number of shares offered by us, as set forth on the cover page of this prospectus, remains the same, after deducting estimated underwriting discounts and commissions.

The principal purposes of our initial public offering are to create a public market for our Class A common stock and thereby enable future access to the public equity markets by us and our employees, obtain additional capital, and facilitate an orderly distribution of shares for the selling stockholders. We intend to use the net proceeds to us from our initial public offering for working capital and other general corporate purposes; however, we do not currently have any specific uses of the net proceeds planned. We may use a portion of the net proceeds to us to satisfy a portion of the anticipated tax withholding and remittance obligations related to the initial settlement of our outstanding RSUs, which will become due approximately six months following the completion of our initial public offering. Additionally, we may use a portion of the proceeds to us for acquisitions of complementary businesses, technologies, or other assets. However, we have no commitments with respect to any such acquisitions or investments at this time.

Pending other uses, we intend to invest the proceeds to us in investment-grade, interest-bearing securities such as money market funds, certificates of deposit, or direct or guaranteed obligations of the U.S. government, or hold as cash. We cannot predict whether the proceeds invested will yield a favorable return. Our management will have broad discretion in the application of the net proceeds we receive from our initial public offering, and investors will be relying on the judgment of our management regarding the application of the net proceeds.

We will not receive any proceeds from the sale of shares of Class A common stock by the selling stockholders. Mark Zuckerberg, our founder, Chairman, and CEO, will offer and sell              shares in our initial public offering. We expect that substantially all of the net proceeds Mr. Zuckerberg will receive upon such sale will be used to satisfy taxes that he will incur upon his exercise of an outstanding stock option to purchase 120,000,000 shares of our Class B common stock.

            Izvor: Registration Statements on Form S-1 / use of proceeds, www.sec.gov

Iz prethodnog izveštaja vidimo da nemamo jasne naznake šta će preduzeće koje je uradilo IPO uraditi sa delom sredstava prikupljenih ponudom koji je namenjen za investiranje. Namene su prikazane kao opšte: povećanje obrtnog kapitala, nove akvizicije, i ulaganja u bezrizične hartije. Ovo poslednje i ne indicira neki spektakularni rast. Ovaj opšti karakter namene prikupljenih sredstava samo pojačava neizvesnost i uz sve ostale karakteristike ovu hartiju svrstava u hartije rasta koje guru investiranja svrstavaju u špekulacije i izbegavaju da investiraju u njih. Hartije rasta obično imaju visoke PE, PB, PS racio što je slučaj i sa preduzećem predmetom naše analize. Prevashodno zbog toga što oni reflektuju budući rast u zaradama, knigovodstvenoj vrednosti kapitala i prihodima. Problem je samo u tome što se taj rast ne ostvari uvek, tako da nije ni redak slučaj da investitori ostvare umesto velikih prinosa velike gubitke. Facebook je izašao na berzu sa ovim pokazateljima koji su prilično visoki PE racio 68,84. Poređenja radi Microsoft je uradio IPO na PE raciu od 18. U sledećoj tabeli ćemo prikazati procenu vrednosti Facebook pomoću uslovljenog PB racia i pomoću medijane PB racia za komparabilna preduzeća. Što nam može poslužiti kao sidro u vrednovanju Facebook i uputiti nas na oprez i u potragu za dodatnim informacijama kako bi izvršili pravilno vrednovanje

Tabela: Uslovljeni P/B i Medijana P/B

Ime uporedivog preduzeća ROE – X                 P/B racio Y
Google Inc GOOG 0,1934 3,18
Linkedin Corporation LNKD 0,0312 15,88
AOL INC AOL 0,0390 1,16
Yahoo! Inc YHOO 0,0906 1,41
Sina Corporation SINA -0,0513 3,24
Adobe Systems Incorporated ADBE 0,1262 2,63
Microsoft Corporation MSFT 0,3086 3,54
Apple Inc AAPL 0,4842 5,13
Dell Inc DELL 0,2788 2,34
b0 4,834293606 Medijana       3,18
b1 -3,328608286  
y=b0+bixi 4,239580673  
Korelacija -0,123479511  
Koeficijent determinacije 0,01524719  
Indikativna vrednost sopstvenog kapitala u $ 23,728,933,027 17,823,646,500
Cena po akciji u $ 11 8,33
Tekuča cena akcija u $ 31,70 31,70
Tekući ROE 0,18 0,18
Tekući P/B racio 12,12 12,12
Procenjeni  P/B racio 4,24 3,18

 

Napomene: Podaci korišćeni u obračunu su preuzeti iz finansijskih izveštaja, knjigovodstvena vrednost sopstvenog kapitala Q1 2012 MRQ, neto dobitak Q1 2012 ttm. Izvor: www.bloomberg.com, www.morningstar.com.  Podaci o broju i cenama akcija su preuzete sa www.bloomberg.com, www.morningstar.com

 

Jedan komentar na IPO – FACEBOOK

  1. Facebook je “miniran” od strane velikih investitora i to je bilo poznato nekoliko nedelja pre izlaska..Bafet je to cak spomenuo i na svojoj slupstini…
    Svu krivicu za neuspeh snosi Morgan Stenli..Sustinski vise od 50% kotiranih kompanija ima slicne ili losije performanse od Facebooka ali stoje jer nije poljuljano poverenje. Ako bude pametan vlasnik ce na sudu ojaditi svoju investicionu banku…
    Mnogi nisu ni svesni kakvu buru moze da izazove ovaj kiks pokroviteljske banke,to je bukvalno urusavanje berzanskog sistema i mose se rasiriti poput cunamija.

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